Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Dear the Knicks (or, How I Learned to Stopy Worrying and Love Carmelo)

Dear the Knicks:

I have been pretty schizophrenic about this whole Carmelo thing. At first, like everyone, I thought, "hey, one of the league's top 15, maybe top 10 players wants to be a Knick . . . great. Sign him up." But as the "Melo-drama" wore on, and it looked like the Knicks might have to actually cough up some quality players in order to acquire another star before the trade deadline, I thought "hey, forget it." There is every reason to believe that you would have been able to just sign him at the end of the season without having to give up anything more than the $20 million or so per year that he will get as a part of his contract extension.

But now that it is (almost) official, I am excited. The Knicks have two marquee players, are poised to make a run this season, and -- far more importantly -- are positioned to be a competitive, fun team to watch for the next five years. You don't match up against the Celtics or the Heat just yet, but there is reason to believe that you can in the near future (more on that in a minute). Compared to the despair that fans of this team have rightly felt for the last ten years, this is a great day for the franchise.

I think it is difficult for people who didn't live in and around New York in the 1990s to realize how much of a basketball town this really is. But when the Knicks are good --- whether that means really good, like the Ewing-and-Oak-Mase-Starks (swish!) teams of the early 90s, or just competitive but perhaps over-achieving good, like the Sprewell/Houston Knicks of the late 90s --- New York gets behind you. And I don't just mean that people buy tickets (though it is true that you can look forward to selling out the arena again), I mean that people talk about it, follow the NBA more closely, and get excited about the team.

But what this organization has put its fans through for the last decade has pushed all boundaries of loyalty to a team (perhaps more accurately, it has completely shattered them). The tag "breaking up with the Knicks" appears eight times on this blog; the tag "Knicks," only six (it will be seven after this post). That's what happens when a team that made the playoffs for something like fifteen consecutive years goes a decade without a getting out of the regular season (I respectfully decline to acknowledge the 2003-04 campaign, in which the Knicks were under .500 and got swept in the first round by the Nets).

So you can't blame us for being skeptical, for being uncertain, and for being in denial that the Knicks might actually be good again. But it looks like you might. First of all, to add Carmelo Anthony - an undeniably prolific scorer - to a team that is already averaging 106 points a night is alone going to be worth the price of admission. Second, I know everyone was starting to get to know and like Raymond Felton, but Chauncey Billups is a great complement to the two bona fide stars now on the roster (OB: I didn't realize last night that Billups was included in the deal . . . how are you worried about PG? This is an upgrade). Add in the fact that Landry Fields can now actually be a rookie instead of being asked to be one of the stars of the team and things look even brighter.

Now don't get me wrong, Donnie (or Mike, or Jim, or Isaiah, or whichever one of you actually pulled this deal together). This team has a lot to prove, and there are some question marks. Big ones. Like how will a guy who is often knocked for not playing defense going to fit in with a team that is often knocked for not playing defense. And even though Amar'e has only been here a few months, his MVP-caliber season he has completely won over the New York fans. Will egos get in the way when the hometown hero soaks up some of the accolades and adulation? (side note: I don't even believe this myself. Amar'e lobbied as hard as anyone to bring in Carmelo, and I just don't see even a whiff of drama on him. If Carmelo wants the back page, front page, page six or all three, I think Amar'e will be fine to let him have it).

And then, of course, there is the fact that you had to surrender four decent, in some cases more than decent, supporting cast members to make the deal happen. You probably could have had Carmelo in the offseason, even with the Nets in full pursuit. But that that is debatable and ultimately not knowable. Either way, this is not exactly a lopsided deal in the Knicks favor. Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari have star potential, and Timofey Mozgev (aka Quad Who) - despite his inauspicious welcome to New York - was looking like he could be a more durable and reliable center than anyone initially thought possible.

But as Michael Wilbon pointed out this morning, "if Gallinari, Mozgov, [Chandler] and [Felton] were that good, the Knicks would have been better than 28-26 at the break." That may not be entirely fair to those four guys, but Wilbon has a point. None of these guys are superstars. One or two of them might become stars down the road, but Carmelo is a superstar now. Today. It is far easier (and far cheaper) to add supporting cast members than it is to add a central, foundational piece of the puzzle. The Knicks were never going to build a dynasty around Danilo Gallinari.

Now, you can make a nice little run this year, maybe even sneak past the first round of the playoffs. But the real fun might start next season. Chris Paul or Derron Williams could be on the way, completing a trifecta for the Knicks that could put them on even closer footing with the Heat and the Celtics. And even if you want to discount that possibility because of the potential for a hard (or harder) salary cap, the two-star-plus-supporting-cast formula has certainly worked pretty well in the past. Just ask Shaq and Kobe. Or Michael and Scottie. Or Karl and John. A Deron Williams addition would be sensational, but I do not think it is necessary for this team to be very competitive in the East for the next few years. There is no shortage in the NBA of quality back of the roster guys who can play defense and support the primary scorers. And there is every reason to believe that you can build around Amar'e and Carmelo to make this a compelling team for the next five years.

You gave up a lot to make this move. And it is distressing to think that you could have had Carmelo for less if Dolan would just get himself and Isaiah Thomas out of Donnie Walsh's way. But this is a deal the Knicks had to make. You got your man. Or your man got you. Either way: this team just got far more exciting, maybe a little better for this season, and positioned itself to make a run at a championship in the next few years. Compared to where this team was just two or three years ago, I'd have to say it was a good day.

20 comments:

ChuckJerry said...

I logged on in order to talk about this trade, but I clearly couldn't beat your 4:34am posting time.

My post was going to be much shorter, it was gonna say, "Bad trade."

They're not going to win anything this year. And if Carmelo was dying to play in New York then he could have waited until the off season.

Wilson Chandler is basically "Carmelo Light" so he had to be a part of the trade, but Gallinari is a good player who is like 22 years old. I can live without Mozgov, but Felton put in like 40 minutes a night, something that an unhappy Billups will not be able to do. That means more Toney Douglas time in our future.

They also traded picks on top of picks like it was the Eddy Curry trade all over again. Who wants to bet that Eddy Curry is averaging 15 a game for the remainder of the season.

My favorite Knicks since 1990: John "I definitely feel..." Starks -> Latrell "yo, Latrell" Sprewell -> Kurt the flirt Thomas -> David "I'm totally gay for David Lee" Lee -> Landry "what are you doing for the next 10 years other than being my favorite player?" Fields

The Notorious LJT said...

i still don't follow the knicks all that much but it would seem carmelo is a major upgrade.

it would be unfair to not point out that carmelo has been acting like a 12 year old drama queen for the past few months, especially after all the shit we talked about lebron.

the most disconcerting thing about this trade, though, is the repeated news reports that isiah is fully back in the fold and has dolan's ear more than walsh.

so it's not without concerns, but i'm happy to have carmelo. i hope he has what it takes to win in nyc.

The Notorious LJT said...

incidentally, 4:34 am, side bar? what's up with that?

Side Bar said...

re: the time, I am a borderline insomniac now (point of information: the post time they give is when you start writing, not the time you finish).

re: the trade, chuck, I really could not disagree with you more (or OB, who I happen to know is far more in your camp).

I think you are way too focused on this year. They were not going to win a championship this year and I don't think the trade changes that. Chauncey Billups is an upgrade (though point taken re: the playing time) but he is a temporary upgrade.

The Knicks had an opportunity to build around two superstars instead of one. I just cannot fathom that in three years we are all going to be sitting around wishing we had Timofey Mozgov back.

I know Carmelo wanted to come here, but was it so definite that it was worth risking not getting him at all? Was it so out of the question that he would go play in Brooklyn for Jay-Z and the russian mobster? Because unless you can guarantee that he would have come, you are basically saying the Knicks should have risked not getting him in order to hold on to Danilo Gallinari.

I would not have taken that risk and I am glad that the Knicks didn't either.

I agree w/LJT re: the shenanigans in the front office, but what can you do?

Evan said...

It’s exciting to have Melo but they did overpay. This trade has Dolan/Thomas stench all over it. Walsh was doing well, playing coy, and then we read that Dolan stating “we need to get this done.” What an ass! Why would you let the other side know you are desperate for something they have? I would live to put a piece of duct tape over Dolan’s mouth. Let Donnie handle shit!

ChuckJerry said...

Things I hate in order:

1) James Dolan (and by extension, Cablevision)
2) Time Warner Cable. Interesting that numbers 1 and 2 are cable companies.
3) Isiah Thomas
4) Terrorism
5) The Tea Party
6) People who use the self check out line at the grocery store even though they don't know how to use it properly.

Open Bar said...

Oh fuck you so hard, James Dolan.

After you FINALLY stopped being your awful self and let Donnie Walsh build a team that was likable, fun to watch, had a promising future and even a winning record, you go and get the big name at the expense of everything else.

Everything Isiah touches turns to rape. Didn't we learn that lesson already?

And SB -- why so sanguine on Chauncey Billups? Dude is older than Derek Harper. Absolutely not an upgrade. Only bright spot is he'll be gone soon enough.

I really don't mind losing Gallo, only because he plays the same position as Carmelo and not nearly as well. But he was, young, cheap and getting better all the time. Sort of like Felton and Chandler and Mosgov and (probably) that no. 1 draft pick we once again won't have.

And for the record, your argument is weakened when Mike Wilbon is your primary support.

That said, I have no idea how this trade will work out.

The Notorious LJT said...

Hyperbolic much, Open Bar?

The Knicks, likely, overpaid - given that they probably could have got this guy for nothing. Of course, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Carmelo says fuck it and plays for Jay Z in Brooklyn.

So while it wasn't the shrewdest negotiating, Amare' (Amar'e?) and TimoFEY Mozgov weren't winning the Atlantic Division, much less an NBA Championship anytime soon.

They got a top 5 player in his prime, you can pay a big price for that. Do you think it's easier to find someone to take the place of Raymond Felton or Carmelo Anthony?

The worst thing about this trade is it seems to smell of Isiah - which is pretty horrible.

All in all, still, they had to get Carmelo and, in the end, who cares if they overpaid a little bit. Not getting him would have been catastrophic.

The Notorious LJT said...

Hyperbolic much, Open Bar?

The Knicks, likely, overpaid - given that they probably could have got this guy for nothing. Of course, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Carmelo says fuck it and plays for Jay Z in Brooklyn.

So while it wasn't the shrewdest negotiating, Amare' (Amar'e?) and TimoFEY Mozgov weren't winning the Atlantic Division, much less an NBA Championship anytime soon.

They got a top 5 player in his prime, you can pay a big price for that. Do you think it's easier to find someone to take the place of Raymond Felton or Carmelo Anthony?

The worst thing about this trade is it seems to smell of Isiah - which is pretty horrible.

All in all, still, they had to get Carmelo and, in the end, who cares if they overpaid a little bit. Not getting him would have been catastrophic.

Side Bar said...

OB/Chuck -- I cannot tell if you are mad that the Knicks overpaid and believe that Carmelo could have been had from Denver for less, or if you honestly think they would be a better basketball team over the next few years without Carmelo but with the four guys that they traded.

If it is just the former, I can agree. They did overpay, and they did it because the people running the show just would not get out of Donnie Walsh's way. It is possible that Carmelo was never willing to sign with the Nets, and that he just sort of played along at the implicit or maybe even explicit urging of Denver so that at least they could get something in return. But obviously we really will not ever know that. Dolan got nervous, perhaps because Isaiah just has to be contrary to Walsh in order to have a job, and the rest is history.

It sucks, but until one of us comes into several hundred million dollars, it is what it is.

What I cannot understand is if you honestly think they will be better in the long run without Carmelo. As I said this morning and LJT articulated again . . . the guys they traded are replaceable and will be replaced in the offseason, if not sooner. Carmelo is a bona fide all-star whose career is on a hall of fame trajectory. Oh, and, by the way, he's 26.

Sucks that they maybe could have gotten him for a little less, but this was a no-brainer for this team even at the price they ultimately paid.

ChuckJerry said...

It bothers me that they overpaid. They are definitely better today than yesterday.

But if they could have had him for nothing next year when Boston is getting older by the minute, it would have been better.

This is mad short terming it, which is what they've done for the past 10 years rather than big picturing it.

PS - Chicago is 22-8 in their last 30. They are young and good. That puts the Knicks behind Miami, Boston, Orlando, and Chicago at the very least and that's only in the East. They're gonna need all the firepower they can get.

PPS - I heard a rumor that the Nets had a trade worked out with the Nuggets if and when they traded Carmelo to the Knicks. What if Felton, Gallo, and Chandler turned up in NJ by Wednesday?

The Notorious LJT said...

If the choice was trading all those gies or not getting Carmelo, which would you pick?

The Notorious LJT said...

If the choice was trading all those gies or not getting Carmelo, which would you pick?

Open Bar said...

While I think the Knicks are probably better now than they were yesterday, it's hard to say by how much. Also, removing those four cheap players and replacing them with one max-contract guy does seriously limit what else can be added. We don't know if Chris Paul or Deron Williams will want to sign if they can get $5M more per year with another team. Maybe if Carmelo offered to take less money, thus creating greater incentive for a third star to come along, that could work.

Also, SB, your three star pairings (Shaq & Kobe, Jordan & Pippen, Malone & Stockton) all had either a center or a point guard (the two most important positions) or Michael Jordan. I'm fairly certain Amar'e & Carmelo don't reach that echelon.

I think the strongest argument for getting Carmelo now is that Amar'e is 28 already, and he's only gonna be this good for a little while longer, so as long as we've got him, we should surround him with the best at whatever the cost -- all of which I agree with, except the "whatever the cost" part, which I still think was a bit too high.

The Notorious LJT said...

so just to get this straight open bar, you'd rather have kept danillo gallinaro, felton and pete vignier rather than have gotten carmelo?

b/c that's what it sounds like you are saying?

Open Bar said...

I should clarify: It seemed clear (though not certain, to be sure) that Carmelo wanted to play for the Knicks and would only sign an extension to play here. Therefore, the Knicks could have gotten him for the same amount of money, but without giving up Gallo, Felton, Mosgov, Chandler, a no. 1 draft pick (the knicks only have 2 over the next five years now; sound familiar?), two no. 2 draft picks and $3 million.

Of course Carmelo is better than those four guys. I'm just saying we probably would have gotten him anyway, just a few months later.

The Notorious LJT said...

That is fair, however by playing that card you do have to admit you ran the risk that the Nets pulled off the trade.

Also, the Nuggets could have traded him on the relative cheap to a contender for a playoff run just to get something for him - and had him fall in love with wherever he ended up.

Open Bar said...

Those are possible, sure, it just seemed more likely to me (based on what I'd read during this whole thing, the reliability of which is impossible to know) that Carmelo was gonna be a Knick by next year; it was simply a matter of how and when. And since he does not instantly make the Knicks a championship contender (he probably only bumps them up from the #6 seed to maybe #4), that was a lot to give up.

I often think it's silly to take how you feel personally about pro athletes into account when considering a trade or whatever, but I really began to like Felton, Gallo, Mosgov and Chandler. It's been ages since the Knicks have even been watchable, let alone likable. Sure, I'll probably love Carmelo and I'll learn to like Billups and Balkman (again) and whatever other chumpstains are coming, but it still hurts to see those other guys go -- the guys who helped make me tune in every game for the first time in years.

And lastly, the foul stench of Isiah soils the whole thing. Then again, LJT, Isiah's prize pick-up and your favorite player of all time, Eddy Curry, is now gone. Are you gonna be OK?

The Notorious LJT said...

what a black mark on my resume that trade ended up being.

i'm pretty sure the knicks would have been nba champs if they kept othella harringtong.

what a stupid gamble.

Open Bar said...

And Michael Sweetney!